WVU is now a proud member of the Big 12. The Mountaineers left the struggling Big East for a more competitive conference with a better television contract. It looks to have been a great move by Athletic Director Oliver Luck. The Mountaineers needed to leave the Big East and play in the big leagues. But in doing so, they had to leave two of their biggest rivals behind, Pitt and Syracuse.
I understand why WVU, Pitt, and Syracuse left the Big East, it makes sense to me. I even understood, at the time, why Pitt and Syracuse chose the ACC. Even though moving from the Big East to the ACC was almost a lateral move (I do give the ACC the edge recently in football. I don't give it much of an edge, but an edge. The Big East has declined that much.) Pitt and Syracuse saw both a football and a basketball conference in the ACC where they could compete. The bigger conferences weren't knocking on either of their doors. The move made sense. The Big East was dying, they had to jump ship. But now, it looks like they may have jumped from the frying pan in to the fire. The following is an article written by Chris Smith, a business sports writer for Forbes Magazine. It tells a tale I don't think either university was expecting. Enjoy your new home Pitt!!
Say Your Goodbyes: The ACC's Days Are Numbered
Things were looking up for the ACC as recently as a few weeks ago. The conference had poached Pittsburgh and Syracuse from the Big East, which in turn helped it land a new TV deal with ESPN that guarantees each conference member an additional $4 million per year. But ACC Commissioner John Swofford’s empire has come under siege before he could even finish patting himself on the back. Rumors of realignment refuse to subside while new television contracts and playoff plans pose long-term threats to the conference. At this point, it looks like Swofford will be lucky if the ACC is still considered a top conference in two years.
The most publicized threat to the ACC’s stability has been one of its own members, Florida State. The trouble began with rumors that Florida State was looking into moving to the Big 12 in order to cash in on the conference’s new 13-year, $2.6 billion TV deal. The Big 12′s TV contract grants conference members third tier TV rights, unlike the ACC’s deal with ESPN, and it annually pays about $3 million more per school. Sources at the school strongly denied the rumors of impending conference realignment, but that was before Andy Haggard, Chairman of the school’s Board of Trustees, blasted the ACC’s new TV deal. Haggard decried that the conference gave up too much in the agreement, and he suggested that FSU’s Board of Trustees was willing to consider a conference change. Seminoles head football coach Jimbo Fisher reiterated the message, saying that Florida State should explore possible realignment options.
Florida State’s president, Eric Barron, finally came out with his official stance on the subject. Barron’s list of pros and cons suggests that the school should stay in the ACC, but he concludes his memo by saying:
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We can’t afford to have conference affiliation be governed by emotion — it has to be based on a careful assessment of athletics, finances and academics. I assure you that every aspect of conference affiliation will be looked at by this institution, but it must be a reasoned decision.
The conclusion is far from a commitment to the ACC, and Barron’s concerns are not nearly as problematic as he phrases them. He twice notes that the Big 12′s new TV deal isn’t officially signed, though that really ought to suggest that the contract’s total value could increase further with the addition of Florida State. Barron is also worried about increased travel costs, but Baylor, TCU and West Virginia are all closer to Tallahassee than either Pittsburgh or Syracuse. Plus the Big 12 would likely absorb an additional ACC team along with Florida State, adding another geographically close conference member.
That second ACC school also adds another layer of problems for the doomed conference.
The Big 12, should it choose to expand, would add two schools in order to reach a total of 12 members, the minimum number required to host a conference championship game. Schools rumored to be interested in following Florida State to the Big 12 are Clemson, Miami and Virginia Tech. TCU athletic director Chris Del Conte recently offered credence to those rumors. Clemson is on record saying that it would consider any offers, while Miami has claimed that it is committed to the ACC. Georgia Tech was also thrown into the mix last week, though the school’s athletic director has downplayed such rumors.
Losing two schools would be a blow to the ACC, but the departure of any of the above listed would be particularly damaging. If the ACC loses Georgia Tech, it loses Atlanta, the ninth-largest media market in the country. If Miami leaves with FSU, then the ACC would no longer have a school in Florida. Finally, Clemson and Virginia Tech are essentially the only schools in addition to Florida State that have a real chance of reaching a BCS bowl in the near future. Had either of them not been in the ACC last season – Clemson and Virginia Tech went to the Orange Bowl and Sugar Bowl, respectively – the conference would have missed out on about $5 million in post-season revenue.
Simply put, the ACC cannot afford to lose two of its premier football schools. Some fans may point to the conference’s wealth of basketball powers like Duke, North Carolina and Syracuse, but college basketball alone is not enough. Just look at the Big East. The conference relied on basketball programs at Connecticut, Louisville, Syracuse to generate NCAA tournament payouts and TV dollars. And while the three schools have been nothing short of spectacular, with Louisville ascending to the throne of college basketball’s most valuable team, the conference is quickly collapsing. Pittsburgh, Syracuse and West Virginia have recently fled the Big East, and Louisville has announced that it wants out. The reason is that conferences cannot keep up financially without a core of competitive football programs able to drive up television revenue.
But even if the ACC convinces its top football schools to stick around for another year, the conference has little hope of keeping them there for the long-term.
As mentioned above, the ACC’s renegotiated contract includes third tier rights, which means that member schools’ TV revenue is mostly limited to the $240 million that ESPN annually pays the conference. Big 12 schools, on the other hand, make more per school than ACC members – $20 million to $17 million – and still control their third tier rights. Those third tier rights can be very valuable; Texas collects about $15 million annually from the Longhorn Network. Similarly, the Big Ten packages third tier games on the Big Ten Network, which has nearly matched the annual payouts of the conference’s national TV network deals. The ACC sold its third tier rights to ESPN, but the conference’s schools still get out-earned by those in every major conference except the SEC (and that claim will not be valid for long as the conference is renegotiating its TV rights fees to an estimated $25 million per school annually).
Perhaps even more importantly, the ACC might be on the outside looking in after the BCS implements its new playoff system in 2014. It’s unclear at this point how the current bowls will be worked into the system, but their current conference affiliations should be worrying for the ACC. The Big Ten and Pac-12 want to preserve the Rose Bowl, while the Big 12 and SEC recently agreed to a new inter-conference championship plan for when the playoff system is implemented. Those two games match up well with the four-team playoff, suggesting that the four conferences have an inside track on the future of college football’s postseason.
Fans of the ACC don’t need to worry about the conference disappearing entirely anytime soon – just look at how long the Big East’s death rattle has lasted – but they may want to keep an eye on this week’s Big 12 meetings. The ACC’s run as a top conference is quickly ending, and the Big 12 is more than capable of dealing a fatal blow.
Chris Smith, Forbes Staff
I cover the business of sports.
